2022 Tampa Bay Lightning Season Preview

After coming up just short against the Colorado Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Finals, the Lightning will have a lot of question marks for the 2022-23 Season. What are the expectations? What is the identity of this team? Will the younger players step up? Is this the beginning of the changing of the guard?

Expectations:

When it comes to expectations, with the Lightning’s success over the past five years, fans and management will continue to expect excellence and competitiveness ending in another Stanley Cup Playoff run. Currently, the Lightning are sitting right around fifth for the odds on favorite to win the 2023 Stanley Cup. Those ahead of them are three Eastern Conference teams (Maple Leafs, Hurricanes, and Panthers), and the Avalanche. With two Atlantic Division rivals also favorites for the Stanley Cup, the regular season expectations are to automatically qualify for the playoffs by ending up top 3 in the Division. The biggest competition outside of those two teams will come from Boston. Detroit, Ottawa, and Montreal have restructured their rosters and likely will not be competitive for any playoff spot, including the wild card. Detroit also has a new coach behind the bench after former Lightning GM Steve Yzerman took the Lightning’s assistant coach Derek Lalonde. The Bruins are going to have their two major players with injuries to start this season and might give one of these other teams the ability to make an early run at the playoffs.

The Lightning should, with as much talent as they have, have no issues (barring injury) to securing a playoff spot as top 3 in the division. The Lightning should likely even be the favorites to win the division. Toronto will need another incredible year from Auston Matthews and need their goaltender to step up for the season long schedule. The Panthers made a splash at last years trade deadline but with that gone, and a new coach, question marks remain. With this Lightning roster, the big four remain: Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, and Vasilevskiy. As long as it is not Vasy going down to injury, there is enough talent to fill the void should one of these players miss time throughout the season.

Additionally, regular season hockey is vastly different from playoff hockey. Regular season hockey is about managing an entire season, the style of play is different, and the pace of play is slower. This all benefits the Lightning and other well oiled machines.

Playoff hockey is different. It is about speed, getting good matchups, line changes, and it never hurts having a goalie who gets hot at the right time. That is why you see more 8 seed – 1 seed upsets in Stanley Cup than any other sport. If a goalie gets hot and becomes unstoppable in the playoffs, it changes the dynamic of the team. Names that come to mind that had one or two great playoff runs include Jean Sebastian Giguere, Matt Murray, and Jonathan Quick. That doesn’t even mention Sergei Bobrovsky who with the Blue Jackets, swept the Lightning in the 1st round of the 2019 playoffs and kept the Lightning to under three goals each game (and only 1 in games 2 and 3).

Who will step up?

Watching last years Finals, the Avalanche appeared as the younger, faster, and hungrier team. It looked similar to a rerun of the first round matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Lightning were able to counter with great goaltending, and letting the experience and puck do the work, instead of the speed of their legs. Work smarter, not harder. But as the team continues to age, it will be important for the younger, faster players, to step up and fill those traditional roles that Tyler Johnson and other filled a few years ago.

Additionally, the Lightning’s defense got a make over during the offeseason. Over the past couple years, the defense has seemed out of shape, a step older, and/or a step slower. The Lightning let McDonagh and Sustr walk who were both over 31 years old. They did bring in another defenseman veteran in Ian Cole, but also signed young defenders Haydn Fleury and Philippe Myers (both under 26 years old). The Lightning also resigned Mikhail Sergachev (who now appears heir apparent to Hedman) and Erik Cernak. Both are also under 25 years old. With the Defense becoming younger, it may help come playoff time with speed. The Lightning resigned Anthony Cirelli who has been nothing short of amazing, finishing top 5 in Selke Voting the past two years. While he is a forward, he is one of the top defensive forwards in the league. These three resigns all agreed to 8 year extensions (keeping them under contract through 2030-2031 season).

UPDATE (10/10): The Lightning have suspended Ian Cole pending an investigation into sexual allegations involving a minor. The Lightning also waived Myers but expect him back as the move was cap salary related.

Offensively, the Lightning did not change much in the offseason. They signed 23 year old Grant Mismash and 29 year old Vladislav Namestinikov. Vlad, who was originally drafted by the Lightning back in 2011, will likely be on the main roster while Mismash will be on a 2 way contract and start with the Crunch (the Lightning’s minor league team affiliate). While the focus this offseason as on defense, look for that to flip next offseason with Killorn and Perry becoming free agents, and Stamkos, Maroon, and Hagel becoming free agents the following year. Depending on how the season is going, the Lightning may even try to find some partners at the trade deadline to start addressing this issue.

With Vasy in goal, there are no issues absent any injury. He is under contract through the 2027-28 season. He has been the steady pulse the Lightning have needed when the ice tilts, especially during the playoffs. He has the ability to learn an opponent in such a short amount of time, and be able to defend efficiently against them. Without Vasy, the Lightning are in a world of trouble come playoff time. Brian Elliott, a veteran, is the backup and a very capable backup. This is the last year on Elliott’s contract and the Lightning will want to find a capable backup for Vasy moving forward, should Elliott retire.

Also, the Lightning lost Derek Lalonde who became the head coach for the Detroit Red Wings. Meanwhile, the former Detroit coach, Jeff Blashill, was hired to fill Lalonde’s spot. Essentially, they switched places. Blashill, prior to being Detroit’s head coach, had enormous success for Detroit’s minor league affiliate, but it has not translated yet to the professional level. The blame shouldn’t just be on Blashill though. He inherited an aging Detroit roster who did not try to embrace for a transition, something the Lightning hope to thwart in the coming years.

2022-2023 Predictions:

The Lightning will win the Atlantic Division behind Vasy’s goaltending. Vasy will be an Hart Memorial finalist as the Lightning will win many games and Vasy will continue his impressive career. Age will start showing with the Forwards, but the Defenseman will pick it up and start contributing more inside the opposing blue line. It is too early to say this is the beginning of the end for the core group of players, as the next offseason will really be telling for the long term success and transition for the Lightning. As for this year, they remain dominant.

Now for the bad news predictions and thoughts. If the Maple Leafs and Lightning met in the Eastern Conference Finals last year (although it was impossible), I would not have been surprised if the Maple Leafs won the series. The Maple Leafs lack of playoff experience, and Vasy, were ultimately what led to them losing a series in which they outperformed the Lightning.

This year, with more experience under their belt, I think the Maple Leafs will defeat the Lightning in the 2nd round of the playoffs. The Maple Leafs are the only team which gives me pause out of the Eastern Conference going into this season on who can beat the Lightning in a 7 game series. If the Maple Leafs falter, I suspect the Lightning will be back to the Stanley Cup Finals and give Tampa Bay Stanley Cup Fever again.